Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests.

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Assessing local adaptation vs. plasticity under different resource conditions in seedlings of a dominant boreal tree species.

Under changing climate conditions, understanding local adaptation of plants is crucial to predicting the resilience of ecosystems. We selected black spruce (Picea mariana), the most dominant tree species in the North American boreal forest, in order to evaluate local adaptation vs. plasticity across regions experiencing some of the most extreme climate warming globally. Seeds from three provenances across the latitudinal extent of this species in northwestern Canada were planted in a common garden study in growth chambers. Two levels of two resource conditions were applied (low/high nutrient and ambient/elevated CO2) in a fully factorial design and we measured physiological traits, allocational traits, growth and survival. We found significant differences in height, root length and biomass among populations, with southern populations producing the largest seedlings. However, we did not detect meaningful significant differences among nutrient or CO2 treatments in any traits measured, and there were no consistent population-level differences in physiological traits or allocation patterns. We found that there was greater mortality after simulated winter in the high nutrient treatment, which may reflect an important shift in seedling growth strategies under increased resource availability. Our study provides important insight into how this dominant boreal tree species might respond to the changing climate conditions predicted in this region.

Forests on thawing permafrost: fragmentation, edge effects, and net forest loss.

Much of the world's boreal forest occurs on permafrost (perennially cryotic ground). As such, changes in permafrost conditions have implications for forest function and, within the zone of discontinuous permafrost (30-80% permafrost in areal extent), distribution. Here, forested peat plateaus underlain by permafrost are elevated above the surrounding permafrost-free wetlands; as permafrost thaws, ground surface subsidence leads to waterlogging at forest margins. Within the North American subarctic, recent warming has produced rapid, widespread permafrost thaw and corresponding forest loss. Although permafrost thaw-induced forest loss provides a natural analogue to deforestation occurring in more southerly locations, we know little about how fragmentation relates to subsequent permafrost thaw and forest loss or the role of changing conditions at the edges of forested plateaus. We address these knowledge gaps by (i) examining the relationship of forest loss to the degree of fragmentation in a boreal peatland in the Northwest Territories, Canada; and (ii) quantifying associated biotic and abiotic changes occurring across forest-wetland transitions and extending into the forested plateaus (i.e., edge effects). We demonstrate that the rate of forest loss correlates positively with the degree of fragmentation as quantified by perimeter to area ratio of peat plateaus (edge : area). Changes in depth of seasonal thaw, soil moisture, and effective leaf area index (LAIe ) penetrated the plateau forests by 3-15 m. Water uptake by trees was sevenfold greater in the plateau interior than at the edges with direct implications for tree radial growth. A negative relationship existed between LAIe and soil moisture, suggesting that changes in vegetation physiological function may contribute to changing edge conditions while simultaneously being affected by these changes. Enhancing our understanding of mechanisms contributing to differential rates of permafrost thaw and associated forest loss is critical for predicting future interactions between the land surface processes and the climate system in high-latitude regions.